When SEPTA further reduces services and sharply hikes fares next week, some commuters are expected to switch to driving, creating more traffic snarls on Philadelphia’s already busy roads.
Driving conditions could worsen even further in January, when the transit agency plans to shut down five Regional Rail lines and stop all train service at 9 p.m. daily, if the state doesn’t come through with a funding boost before then.
That could be very bad news for Center City, the region’s main economic engine.
Given how tight traffic already is at peak times, increasing the number of cars trying to drive through and park by even a relatively small number could lead to gridlock, said Clint Randall, vice president of economic development at the Center City District business organization (CCD).
That, in turn, would discourage people from coming to visit Center City, deciding to live there, wanting to work in the district and forming new businesses, which would stunt growth and even reverse the area’s recovery from the pandemic, he said.
“Nothing degrades the experience of enjoying an urban environment faster and more jarringly than a traffic standstill,” Randall said. “With this as the baseline condition, how do we encourage new businesses to locate here, and what incentive would existing ones have to grow?”
A moment of total gridlock
To illustrate the threat, Randall and his team looked at a map of core Center City — the area between Vine and Pine streets — and calculated that the most cars that could physically fit on the traffic lanes of its main arterial roads is about 21,000 at any given moment. Center City also has about 46,000 parking spaces on streets and in garages and lots.
A figure for the actual number of cars on the streets at the busiest times was not available, but CCD noted that more than 350,000 people come into downtown over the course of a typical weekday, including up to 130,000 commuters and perhaps a quarter-million others.
That means if just 6% of all the daily visitors decided to drive in one morning, there could be a moment of total gridlock, where literally no one could move, Randall said. He noted that traffic already frequently comes to a standstill on the district’s narrow streets, due to various small changes in conditions.
“How many times have you crawled down Chestnut Street, and 15 minutes and three blocks later, you find that it’s one delivery truck that’s parked four feet too far into a travel lane? Or you try to get around City Hall and it turns out that there’s one broken-down bus?” he said.
The effects of parades, protests and special events that block roads for longer periods give a hint of the disruptive effect of permanently increasing the number of cars downtown, he said.
“Very little additional pressure on the system quickly gets you to a highly unsustainable and unpleasant baseline. That starts to be a problem, not just for you if you’re unlucky enough to be stuck in that traffic, but it’s a problem rippling through the whole ecosystem,” Randall said.
City transportation officials offered a similar warning last week, saying the “inescapable consequence” of the SEPTA service cuts would be a “significantly more fragile transportation network overall. The severity and duration of transportation disruptions due to traffic crashes and other unplanned events will be considerably greater than before.”
Signs of recovery now at risk
CCD staff laid out some of the subtle ways that increased traffic could impact quality of life in Center City in a blog post Wednesday.
“Motors run, brakes screech, and cars honk (particularly on roads where people aren’t going anywhere fast),” they wrote. “Cars generate the most exhaust when standing still. The urban heat island effect is exacerbated by the heat generated from thousands of running engines. Gridlock means frustrated drivers, anxious pedestrians, canceled appointments, delayed meetings, ruined dinner dates, missed opening acts.”
Those effects would get worse just as Center City has finally shown signs of recovering, in part, from the bleak days of the pandemic, and of adjusting to the new normal of more people working from home.
While there’s still a glut of unused office space, and the Market East retail corridor remains in an anemic limbo, CCD reported in May that foot traffic has climbed to 90% of pre-pandemic levels, overall retail occupancy has reached 83%, and the number of jobs in Greater Center City is at record levels.
Randall said downtown Philadelphia risks experiencing a version of the quote attributed to Yogi Berra: “Nobody goes there anymore. It’s too crowded.” The “singular destinations” and economic opportunities available in Center City would continue to attract workers and visitors, but if traffic becomes unbearable, over time their numbers would start to erode, he said.
“Why would you want to take a job downtown, if that was your typical day?” Randall said. “Why would you pick a Center City restaurant, if that was what was likely during your trip to dinner? Are you still going to get your subscription to that theater or that museum if you think it’s such a headache to get there every time?”
Or as CCD wrote in the blog post, “Past a certain point, the inherent virtues of a place are not enough to overcome the downsides of reaching it, and the aggravation of spending time in it.”
“Sustainable funding for SEPTA protects Center City’s character, enabling the strolling, shopping, dining and discovering that has made it a destination for decades,” they wrote. “Letting SEPTA fail will clog Center City’s arteries, and in so doing, the downtown of Pennsylvania’s largest city will cease to be the region’s heart of commerce, culture and connection.”
