This story was last updated 6:39 p.m. Wednesday, Jan. 21.
The potential snowstorm that first showed up in your iPhone Weather app on Monday is looking increasingly as if it will show up, heavily, on your doorstep this weekend.
The National Weather Service has upped the likelihood that we’ll see a significant snowfall, starting late Saturday or early Sunday. The Mount Holly office forecast included this message Wednesday morning:
Confidence continues to increase the area will be affected by an impactful winter storm beginning Saturday night and potentially lasting all the way into Monday. Portions of the area are likely to see moderate to heavy snowfall but there remains uncertainty on where the heaviest amounts will fall.
The expected track of the storm has moved northward, which could increase snowfall totals in the city and northern/western suburbs, while Delaware and southern New Jersey might see more of a wintry mix. In a midafternoon forecast note Wednesday, the NWS Mount Holly meteorologists said:
13Z/21 NBM has a 90 to 100 percent probability for more than 6
inches of snow for most of Delmarva, the Delaware Valley
including Philadelphia and into southern New Jersey for the 48
hour period ending at 7 am Monday and an 80 to 90 percent
probability for more than 6 inches of snow for the southern
Poconos, Lehigh Valley, and northern New Jersey. In addition,
13Z/21 NBM has a 70 to 80 percent probability for more than 12
inches of snow for most of Delmarva, the Delaware Valley
including Philadelphia and into southern New Jersey for the 48
hour period ending at 7 am Monday and a 60 to 70 percent
probability for more than 12 inches of snow for the rest of the
forecast area.
We’ll have to wait and see how things develop.
The Weather Channel is now forecasting a possible 12 to 20 inches of snow, starting Saturday evening and continuing to early Monday. 6ABC offered a similar timetable, but didn’t offer possible snow totals yet.
Apple’s Weather app wasn’t so coy Wednesday morning.
On the bright side, Wednesday saw a warmup after a very frigid start to the week that included overnight temps near single digits in the ‘burbs the past few nights. Thursday and Friday will see temperatures in the 40s before Saturday, when the cold returns, setting the stage for the storm.
It’s been a while since Philly dealt with anything this big. The past decade has been relatively quiet after a two-decade stretch that included some of the biggest snowstorms in the city’s history:
- The last “big one” was the Blizzard of 2016, with 22.4 inches (ranking fourth all-time).
- A significant snow in February 2010, which saw a massive 28.5 inches (second all-time) and a combined 44 inches over a week with another storm.
- December 2009, which brought 23.2 inches (third all-time) and was the biggest December storm ever.
- The 1996 blizzard (30.7 inches) remains the all-time record.
Back to Monday’s original post
It’s been the subject of online and offline conversations for much of Monday, but the first big snowstorm of 2026 is arriving online before it shows up in the official forecast. Reddit threads and weather‑nerd group chats are buzzing about screenshots that show upwards of 15 inches of snow for Sunday in the city, even as forecasters stress that the storm’s exact track — and how hard it hits Philadelphia — is still very much in flux.
Which is all true. But there’s this …
On r/philadelphia, one post with a phone‑screenshot forecast of nearly two feet has become a kind of Rorschach test for winter‑starved locals: some are planning sledding routes, others are begging everyone to stop jinxing it.
In broader weather subreddits, users — including a few self‑identified folks watching “from Philly” — are trading model images and talking about “finally getting lucky” after a string of near‑miss storms, which only adds to the sense that something big is bearing down on the city. The vibe is familiar: half excitement, half eye‑rolling at how quickly this town can jump from “dusting” to “shut it all down.”
The most likely path for the week, though, looks less like a guaranteed blockbuster and more like a high‑potential setup evolving in slow motion.
Here’s what’s certain: A deep shot of Arctic air is locking in across the East, dropping wind chills into the single digits and teens — Tuesday morning and the next few days — and setting the stage for any late‑week system to fall as snow instead of rain. The National Weather Service in Mount Holly notes an unusually strong signal for a winter storm about five to six days out, with probabilistic guidance showing roughly a 40–60% chance of at least 2 inches and a 20–40% chance of 6 inches or more across areas south of Philadelphia, with lower odds but still notable chances in and around the city itself. In its discussion, the NWS talks about “high‑end potential” but just as clearly warns that the storm could still shift track and deliver far less, a reminder that the models throwing out foot‑plus totals are only one slice of a wide range.
For Philadelphia, that translates into a week that starts with plain old brutal cold and then gradually raises the stakes. Early on, the city deals with the kind of January weather that makes walking down Market Street feel like navigating a wind tunnel: highs struggling near freezing, lows in the teens, and wind chills that flirt with zero.
As the weekend approaches, attention turns to a developing system riding along the clash zone between that entrenched cold and milder, moisture‑rich air to the south — the classic I‑95 nail‑biter. If the storm tracks close enough to the coast, the city could be looking at a plowable, disruptive snowfall, with heavier bands possible if the low strengthens just offshore; if it slides farther south or east, the real “wow” totals could end up in South Jersey, Delaware, or points south, leaving Philly with something more modest.
