It’s been a long time since so few Philadelphia residents turned out for a presidential primary election.
Only 17.7% of registered voters cast a ballot in Tuesday’s election, or just 183,538 of the city’s more than one million eligible voters, according to unofficial results from the City Commissioners.
That’s a little more than half of the percentage — about 32% — who turned out four years ago to pick Joe Biden for the Democratic nomination, or to endorse Donald Trump’s ultimately unsuccessful reelection bid atop the Republican ticket.
And it’s even further below the 40% of Philly voters who made it to the polls in 2016 to vote for Trump, Ted Cruz, or another Republican, or to choose between Hillary Clinton and her rival Bernie Sanders.
Election observers had predicted low turnout this year, given that Biden and Trump, as well as U.S. Senate candidates Bob Casey and Dave McCormick, lacked primary challengers and had the nominations locked up.
There were competitive statewide races for row offices — Attorney General, Treasurer, and Auditor — but, paradoxically, voters generally thought those candidates were all basically fine and didn’t bother picking among them, said Lauren Cristella, president of the Philadelphia-based good government group Committee of Seventy.
“We had heard that people basically were happy with their choices,” she said. Voters “didn’t feel so passionately that it would motivate them to turn out, and weren’t so opposed to anyone that it would motivate them to turn out.”
A lack of options in Philly
The low participation was evident not only in Philly but across Pennsylvania. Just 29% of the state’s registered voters cast a vote, compared to 41% four years ago, the Inquirer reported.
“By all measures, it was a disappointing day for engagement in the race,” said Chris Borick, director of the Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion, on WHYY’s Studio 2 Wednesday afternoon.
But some observers were nonetheless surprised or disappointed by how few city voters in particular participated in the election. That may reflect a long-term trend of relatively stagnant levels of political engagement in Philadelphia, and factors like the power of incumbency in a solidly Democratic city and the resulting lack of truly contested races.
Cristella said the low turnout was “concerning.”
“Philadelphia is our largest city and economic center, and we need people here to show up in the same proportion. We don’t need other people overrepresented across the state,” she said with a laugh. “We need Philadelphians to show up and vote, too.”
By comparison, the different voter demographics of western Pennsylvania has led to more high-profile competitive races in that region, she said. In Allegheny County, including Pittsburgh, turnout approached 27%.
The poor Philly showing resulted in part “from the lack of contested races, and the lack of options that can get people excited to vote,” Cristella said.
She noted U.S. Rep. Summer Lee’s reelection bid in Allegheny County against a moderate Democratic challenger, which attracted national attention. “There’s just more competitive elections out there because of the demographics of the counties in the western part of the state,” she said.
Stressed and dissatisfied voters
Among the other factors that may have depressed the vote totals in Philadelphia and statewide is discontent with the top of the ticket among both Republicans and Democrats.
“There is a general sense of disappointment right now among the electorate with the choices, especially at the presidential level, with both Donald Trump and Joe Biden having fairly low favorable ratings,” Borick said. “A lot of voters don’t like either of them.”
That’s apparently reflected in the high-number of apparent protest votes against Biden, in the form of voters writing in “uncommitted” or another name, and against Trump via votes for Nikki Haley. She dropped out of the race six weeks ago but still appeared on the ballot.
More than 9.5% of Democratic voters in Philadelphia wrote in a name, which is an unusually high figure. Haley received 17.6% of Republican votes in the city and 16.6% statewide.
Beyond dislike of these particular candidates, voters also seem to be turned off on politics generally, Borick said. In a recent Muhlenberg health study, 43% of Pennsylvania residents surveyed said politics and current events are “a major source of stress” in their lives, far more than personal finances (22%), work (22%), and relationships (9%).
That suggests that, despite the high stakes when Democratic and Republican candidates face each other directly in November, voters could continue responding by staying home rather than casting ballots, Borick said.
“They’re overwhelmed by politics. They’re feeling the lack of efficacy that they could make a difference,” Borick said. “When trust in the system breaks down, turnout often goes down or engagement goes down. So there’s certainly ripe conditions for a drop in turnout this fall.”
