The team’s decision makers meet this week in Music City to talk free agents, trades, and lots of other baseball nonsense.
This week, Phillies team president Dave Dombrowski, general manager Sam Fuld, and a cadre of other key front office folks are in Nashville to chinwag with their counterparts at hotel bars and lobbies throughout the Music City.
This is usually the busiest week of the off-season, with all the decision makers and agents gathered in one place. The Phils and their $250 million payroll are expected to be active, but not necessarily in the market for the biggest names at the dance.
No, they’re not going to sign Shohei Ohtani for close to $600 million. They’re probably not going to snag Japanese pitching phenom Yoshinobu Yamamoto, a pitcher who will likely get north of $200 million. Trading for Juan Soto is likely a pipe dream.
So what will Dombrowski be looking to do this week? And how much does he have to spend?
Competitive Balance Tax
In an effort to keep baseball’s richest teams (of which the Phillies are one), MLB has instituted a Competitive Balance Tax, a friendly way of saying they have a “soft” salary cap. Teams that go over a certain salary have to pay taxes on the overage and also lose draft picks and money that can be used to sign international players. With each CBT threshold a team passes, the penalties become more severe.
Fangraphs has an estimated payroll of $237 million for the Phils for 2024, the exact same number as the first tier of the CBT. The Phils finished 2023 with a $246 million payroll, and it’s expected it could rise to north of $250 million this year. The second tax level is set for $257 million, so it’s likely owner John Middleton would like to avoid hitting that number, but it’s possible he won’t care.
But you can see why acquiring a player like Soto, who will cost north of $30 million in arbitration this year, is a potential non-starter, pushing the payroll well past the second threshold and close to the third, which sits at $277 million.
As much as the Phils like to spend money, even they have their limits and would need to move salary if they acquire someone like Soto.
Outfielder
If Soto is not a real possibility, it’s likely the Phils will try to add someone who can play left field, either in a platoon with Brandon Marsh or, if Marsh is going to play every day against lefties in center or right field, a right-handed outfield bat that can handle the stick and one who preferably isn’t a swing-happy lunatic like Nick Castellanos.
Tommy Pham, who played very well with Arizona after being traded from the Mets mid-season, or Adam Duvall are two names who could fit, although the Phils decided not to trade for either player at the deadline last year. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. could also be a player the Phils like, and if they want to give themselves a super-utility type guy, Kansas City’s Whit Merrifield is a high-contact, good-defense, speedy guy who won’t hit many homers, but will put the ball in play and can man left or center field.
None are needle-movers, but essentially the Phils are trying to replace Rhys Hoskins while also leaving open the possibility of Johan Rojas winning the starting center field job in spring training, with Marsh in left.
Relief Pitcher
Most of the bullpen is already set. Jose Alvarado, Seranthony Dominguez, Gregory Soto, Jeff Hoffman, Matt Strahm, Orion Kerkering are going to be in the ‘pen next year. Craig Kimbrel is gone, so the Phils are likely looking for another late-inning, right-handed arm.
Jordan Hicks is a younger right-handed flame-throwing reliever who has trouble with walks. Sounds like a perfect fit, doesn’t it? They’re going to get someone, though. Maybe a return of old friend Hector Neris, who was outstanding in his two seasons in Houston.
One name in the trade market that surfaced last week was Cleveland’s Emmanuel Clase, who has led the American League in saves each of the last two years. The Guardians would likely be seeking a young, controllable Major League player (Rojas?) and a prospect for an All-Star closer, and for a team as close to the World Series as the Phillies, adding someone like that could be a game-changer.
One name you won’t see Dombrowski go after is All Star Josh Hader, who will not pitch any inning other than the 9th and will not pitch more than one inning. He’s also going to cost a ton of money. Not happening.
Starting Pitcher Depth
The Phils will probably not outbid teams like the Dodgers or Giants for Yamamoto, but there are other guys who could come to Philly on a minor league or cheap Major League deal to provide some depth.
Heck, I wouldn’t be against a reunion with Michael Lorenzen if the price is right. But they’ll add someone who isn’t a big name to the mix.
In short, I’m not expecting any fireworks this week from the Phillies, but that doesn’t mean it won’t happen. Dombrowski likes to deal, and he will be in his element this week in Tennessee.
