When the Phillies are struggling, the same question is whispered, tweeted, and screamed from passenger-side windows: “WHEN WILL THIS END?!?”
This question may not be specifically about the Phillies’ team-wide slump; it may be asked about a horrific traffic backlog, or existence itself. Some people don’t even have questions; they just have statements, like, “Team is washed,” and “Get rid of Kevin Long” and “Rob Thomson has got to go.” These are statements made not out of logic or understanding, but rather fear or concern—everyone wanted more, faster, and in their defense, they weren’t crazy for wanting it.
That’s not how things turned out, though. And we’ve been watching yet another Phillies offense get off to a slow start.
But now, several weeks into the spring, we can take another look around. Signs of offense blooming, blossoming, or even just budding are starting to emerge. And as the Phillies gear up to take on an absolutely terrible Chicago White Sox team this weekend, there are a few Phillies ready to get, or in some cases stay, hot.
Trea Turner
The question for the Phillies most recent 10+-year contract signee entering 2024 was, “Can he give the Phillies a full season of productivity and not just two months of it after some clapping?”
The one thing that worked for Turner most of last year was his speed and base stealing, but so little else was working that he had few opportunities to use it. And projections going into this season were that Turner still has his raw skill, but he’s getting less patient at the plate and making more weak contact.
After 19 games, though, Turner is hitting .329. He has the team lead in base hits by far with 25, with Brandon Marsh and Kyle Schwarber are behind him with 17 each. Turner is also second on the team in runs scored with 12 (behind Schwarber with 13) and as far as soft contact? He has, according to FG, made some of the least amount of it among all Phillies starters, with weak contact in 13.8% of his batted balls—only Bryce Harper has made less weak contact.
Now, Turner’s not hitting it very hard, either, but he’s among the team lead in “medium” contact, and he’s up there with Johan Rojas and Alec Bohm on the list of Phillies for whom over half the balls they’ve hit have been on the ground. But with more opportunities on base than last year, he has stolen the same amount of bases (4) as he did last year at this time, and it’s worth noting that he has stolen 39 in a row without getting caught. I will also add, per the eyeball test, he isn’t excelling at shortstop defensively and seems to struggle with the throw to first. But we’re not here to talk about defense, so let’s just cram that down in the same place we put our Flyers’ feelings. We’re here to talk about who’s hitting and who’s not—and Turner definitely is.
Bryce Harper
Harper is still in recovery from a UCL tear, technically. Given that he defied most of science by returning faster than ever from surgery last year, we’re in new territory. Concerned looks lingered last year until Harper went on a baseball-killing spree in August, as he had been scuffling at the plate after his initial return. This explains the sizable dip outlets like Baseball Prospectus projected him having this year: Hitting for less power and average and striking out more than ever in his age 31 season.
But “projections” are literally just fiction based on math, which sounds like the worst novel of all time. The truth is, Harper is hitting .216 and he’s grounded into more DP than anybody in baseball (which might be why Turner solved his getting on base problem but isn’t getting as many chances to steal and advance and score). So he’s not exactly proving them wrong, but it being Bryce Harper and this being April, well, there’s plenty of space between here and a real problem.
Thing is, Harper’s hitting fly balls at a higher rate than ground balls, AND no one on the Phillies is hitting the ball harder: 48% of his batted balls are hit hard. And again, using the time-honored eyeball test, Harper’s been flying to the warning track for like three or four days. That’s usually a sign that he’s about to blow up.
I think his scuffles are largely the product of pushing. I think he sees a situation where the whole offense is struggling, and in classic Bryce Harper form, feels he can fix everything if he just swings hard enough. But I also think he’s just about got his head on straight and there’s a good chance you’re going to see him go off on the White Sox this weekend.
Alec Bohm
That Bohm probably reached his ceiling as far as production on offense or defense goes in 2023 is not a crime. He’s coming off a season in which he showed a new dimension of power and a better, more patient plate approach. He can hit hard, but not always solidly, and he struggles to elevate the ball.
Several weeks past opening day, he isn’t striking out a lot, and his walk-to-strikeout ratio is tied for highest on the team at 0.7. Bohm is one of five Phillies hitting .300 or higher with RISP in at least 10 PA (the others are Turner, Marsh, Harper, and… Johan Rojas?). If we narrow that to RISP with two outs, he’s .375 in 9 PA.
At third base… look, sometimes Bohm dazzles and sometimes he fizzles. We’ve seen him make incredible plays and strong throws, and we’ve seen him make game-breaking goofs. It’s been discussed how Bohm appears to be really hard on himself, always pounding his glove in frustration after a ball he felt he should have had, but the truth is, he won’t get to every ball that the most elite defenders in the league’s hot corners will.
Mentally, he’s trying to give more than he probably can. But in general, Bohm is giving indications that once the dust settles, he’ll be right along with most of his projections for the year. Rob Thomson has him in his spot in the batting order by design—because he trusts Bohm to hit with runners on base, which he has. Bohm has some stuff to tighten up, but he’s generally where he’s supposed to be.
Johan Rojas
We all know the Johan Rojas story by now: He came into the season as a provider of great center field defense—the kind you don’t always detect when he makes a play because he can make it look so natural—but a bat that needed to be good enough for the majors. That bat didn’t come out in the spring, and it hasn’t come out yet, but the signs are starting to emerge that Rojas can hit the ball hard. Either that or, he’s been playing against pitchers more his speed as the Phillies take on the worst teams in either league.
When I say Bryson Stott has four hits in his last five games, it sounds low. But when I say Johan Rojas has four hits in his last five games, including two on Wednesday in the Rockies finale including a double, it’s time to put your hands together, folks. I’ll say it again—yes, the Phillies are currently facing some of the worst pitching they’ll see all year. And yet, the offense still counts.
You don’t have to be patient with Rojas. You want a center fielder who can do it all, at least adequately, and you don’t have that yet. But unfortunately for you, this is how a team finds out what it has—and what it can get—from a young player in Rojas’ position: By giving him the time to work it out. They’ll decide when it’s been enough, but for now, Rojas’ glove is keeping him in the lineup.
That said, things are happening, if you look hard enough. For Rojas, even a little bit of hitting is good to see. Now he’s got another batch of weak pitching to go up against, hopefully get more comfortable, and capitalize on his recent success. That being said, if he faceplants and goes 0-for the weekend, well, we’re back to zero.
But right now, we can say that Rojas has made better contact in the last week and more contact: from Opening Day to April 11, Rojas was 5-for-31. In the last week, April 12 to today, he is 4-for-14.
Nick Castellanos
Yeah. I don’t know, man. Maybe let Castellanos jump around in a bouncy castle with Brandon Marsh to get in a different mindset. At least one of them would be having the time of his life.
