Election 2017

New Pennsylvania poll shows Hillary dominating Trump in the suburbs

It’s a 28 point lead — 18 points larger than Obama’s margin over Romney in 2012.

Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump

Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump

©Jack Gruber-USA TODAY

Donald Trump’s poll numbers in the Philly suburbs have gone from bad to worse.

The latest poll shows his trouble might be even bigger than anticipated, and because respondents in the crucial ring around the city have a big problem with the “Access Hollywood” tape.

According to a poll released this morning from Bloomberg, Hillary Clinton now leads Trump in the Philly ‘burbs by 28 points. Her overall lead in the state among likely voters is 48-39. This is the first major poll of Pennsylvania since an audio recording of Trump saying, among other comments, “Grab ’em by the pussy. You can do anything.”

The difference between the rest of Pennsylvania and Montgomery, Bucks, Delaware and Chester counties is stark. All of Pennsylvania, for instance, is pretty lukewarm on Trump. Forty percent of Bloomberg respondents said they had a favorable rating of him. But people in the Philly suburbs really can’t stand him. Only 28 percent of respondents said they had a favorable rating of him.

The lack of love for Trump is obvious when compared to how the ‘burbs voted in 2012. Then, Barack Obama still beat Mitt Romney handily, but his margin was 10 percent. This poll shows Clinton 18 points ahead of that. It also shows Clinton eight points ahead of a late September poll that showed her with a 20-point lead in the Philly suburbs.

Why such a huge margin for Clinton? The growth in Clinton’s lead may have a little to do with the “Access Hollywood” tape. In the suburbs, 83 percent of respondents said they were bothered either a little or a lot by Trump’s comments. But the rest of the state was angered, too, with 78 percent of Pennsylvania respondents overall saying they were bothered.

Like many other pieces of this election, Clinton’s huge advantage in the suburbs in some ways defies explanation. While she expectedly leads by huge margins among women and college graduates in the suburbs, she’s also tied with Trump among whites and leading him by one point among men in the combined area of Bucks, Chester, Delaware and Chester counties, according to the Bloomberg poll. In the rest of the state, Trump is dominating these categories and catering to them with his message.

Bloomberg noted that in the rest of Pennsylvania Trump has an 11-point lead. The problem for Trump — and the positive for Clinton — is the rest of Pennsylvania doesn’t matter if you’re failing in the ‘burbs, which accounted for 22 percent of the state’s voters in 2012.

“I don’t know how you win if you lose the suburbs by a certain percentage,” said Terry Madonna, a Franklin and Marshall pollster. “You can’t lose by 20 points.”

 

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